India: the next key HE recruitment market globally

China has long remained the largest market for international student recruitment, a fact that many institutions have relied on at the expense of collaboration in other countries. India may currently send a fraction of the students that China does, but the gap is closing. Sector experts have predicted the inevitable slowdown of Chinese student enrolment for some time and universities will need to shift their strategies accordingly if they are to maintain the flow of international students to their doors. 

The growing importance of India to international recruitment

India is now the second largest contributor to global outward mobility. As growth in enrolments from China slows, the pressure on international universities to diversify their sources of international students will grow. The beginning of slowing Chinese recruitment conveniently coincides with the rollout of the NEP in India and this unique point of rapid change in Indian education could be the key to unlocking greater enrolment from India.

Source: UNESCO

The gap between Indian and Chinese enrolments is likely to start closing in the coming years. In 2019 outbound Indian students numbered 462,000, growing on average by 20% annually since 2012. The average annual growth in China over the same time period was only 8%. In 2012, there were fewer than a third as many Indian international students globally, compared to close to half in 2019. There is no reason to believe that India will overtake China any time soon, but it is important to recognise that of the two markets India has the stronger growth potential.

Source: UNESCO UIS

Despite the faster growth in India, sending only half as many students as China is a major difference. Because of this, international student recruiters will need to search for not one China ‘replacement’ as its student numbers slow, but for significant increases in multiple markets. While India should be high on the priority list owing to its high youth population and current position as the largest sender after China, the economic situation of potential students and the policy environment hold tremendous influence over whether it will do. 

Where does India have the edge over China?

The sheer number of people at student age in India makes it attractive to student recruiters. Despite China having a larger population overall, India has the largest youth population in the world and is predicted to keep it until 2030. 

Population prospects are less promising in China. Some researchers now fear that previous population predictions were severely underestimated and that it may even already be in decline. While it was policy in the past restricting the birth rate in China, socioeconomic concerns are now the driving factors. Young people struggling to make ends meet for themselves will not dare consider having another mouth to feed, and many simply do not want children. This trend will eventually affect the student-age population and restrict China’s potential as a recruitment market, to the benefit of other major sending countries such as India.

The demographic dividend is not the only advantage that India has – language is one of its strongest links to the world’s major study destinations. English is one of India’s official languages and is widely spoken. In China, while the level of English is strong in larger cities it varies greatly across the country. Chinese students put tremendous effort into mastering English and recent policy changes that battered China’s massive tutoring industry risk a decline in English ability.

Specifically for the UK, there are arguably stronger cultural and historical links between India than China. British rule in India certainly left its fair share of dark marks on history, but strong political and economic ties developed between the two countries that have not faded. For potential Indian students, family ties in the UK can be a significant driver of mobility.